Added a note about the geopolitical paradigm shift again.
I was hesitant to write about the geopolitical paradigm shift again until prompted. It seemed to me that I had written down everything I had to say and that there was nothing left to do but observe what is happening today. To the result! As the gunners say. But ultimately, a little synthesis does not hurt.
I have been talking about the geopolitical paradigm shift for many years. I had no divine revelation, just reflection based on readings and discussions with friends. First there were discussions with a friend who has skills in economics and who, in 2000, explained to me the fragility of the American economy: a tiger with feet of clay.
Two important books
Then there was Emmanuel Todd’s book “The End of the Empire” published in 2002. Emmanuel Todd is an anthropologist and historian. It is based on anthropological and demographic data to try to predict the trajectory that a given society is taking. Its domain is that of the long term, far from the superficial, mediocre and reversible rantings of self-proclaimed experts of all stripes. In this book, the author explains why the United States does not have the capacity to impose itself as the only world power and how it tries to mask this through military operations against weak opponents.
Then there was Jacques Sapir’s book “The new 21st century — from the American century to the return of the nations” published in 2008. The author analyzes the same symptoms of relative decline in the United States. Moreover, it defines an interesting concept, that of the political century (several decades during which a certain combination of economic, geopolitical and social issues forms a system) and especially of the inter-century: this period of transition between two political centuries during which the he future seems uncertain, the field of possibilities being open. By analyzing the period of transition between the 19th and 20th centuries (loss of British domination, emergence of Japan and the Spanish-American wars) and the reaction of the dominant power faced with its relative decline, Jacques Sapir sheds light on the attitude of the United States since the fall of the USSR and draws a striking parallel. For example, the F-35 program strangely resembles that of the Dreadnought battleship: an arms race, a technological and misguided headlong rush, which commits crazy sums of money for zero operational results, while elsewhere effective armaments are being developed. and less expensive.
Finally, there is the Stuart Kauffman curve, a simple mathematical construction which makes it possible to propose a timeline following the events. Stuart Kauffman is a biologist and mathematician. Its curve describes the phenomena of phase transition, change of state, which are observed in biology, and in general in the evolution of complex systems. The idea is as follows: we consider a set of N elements, we build one by one the links between the elements of the system taken two by two, and this, in a random way. On the abscissa, we count the number of links created and on the ordinate we measure the size of the largest subset of elements linked together. This simulation must be repeated a large number of times and the average curve considered. The result is a sigmoid curve: at first, it is almost flat, then around N/2, it rises sharply and then stabilizes towards the horizontal. It is a change of state. What does that mean ? This means that many seemingly innocuous little things can happen if you are not careful, without it being noticed from the outside, but at some point, the combination of all these little things makes critical mass and causes the change of state.
From this curve, I just had to pay attention to the indices that I considered relevant, the weak or strong signals in short, and put dates on the abscissa of the curve. I thus placed the origin of the abscissa in 2007/2008 and the inflection point of the curve in 2013/2014 for the reasons that I explain in this article. By following the curve according to the abscissa scale provided by the events, we mathematically reach the asymptote around 2020/2022. Here we are.
This is how when Vladimir Putin launched his initiative to rethink the global security system last December, I immediately understood that he had just given the signal for the implementation of the new geopolitical paradigm, and that behind a localized war was playing out a radical and global change in international relations, the entry into the 21st century according to the definition of Jacques Sapir. I explain it in this article. This was confirmed later, by Vladimir Putin himself, by Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Medvedev. From that moment, it was no longer necessary to focus on the tactical situation, even if it has its importance, but on the implementation of the new system, by observing Sergei Lavrov’s travels (China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Gulf countries…), the declarations of each other, and also the positions taken or the silences of the non-aligned countries, that is to say the rest of the world. And above all the facts: the reorganization of trade in the world; the establishment of a security system vis-à-vis NATO; Russia’s exit from US-controlled global organizations pending the creation of parallel organizations; the forthcoming implementation of an alternative banking exchange system to SWIFT… The way is marked out. All the pieces of the puzzle are on the table, except the position that the countries of the current Western bloc will take in this new organization.
Today, it is no longer a question of when or how the rest of the world will organize itself without us (in any case, time is speeding up), but how will our landing be made: soft or crash ? It is therefore towards the countries of the Western bloc that we must turn our gaze, and first towards the United States which is its center: to detect the weak or strong signals of the collapse of our system. Implode, explode or adapt? Persevere in arrogance, ignorance, fantasy and stupidity or reconnect with reality?
There are still scores to be settled
Recently Vladimir Putin said there was going to be change among Western elites. It’s obvious. It remains to be seen whether the current “elites” will leave the scene:
With handcuffs behind his back;
Or the head on the end of a pike?