Game over

The scale and nature of Russia’s military involvement in Ukraine has one meaning that seems clear to me: the game is over.

The geopolitical paradigm shift in the guise of a Stuart Kauffman curve has come to an end. All that remains is to accept it and translate it into international law. This was recently proposed by Vladimir Putin in what Western propaganda called the “ultimatum”. The problem is that a declining power finds it difficult to accept that its greatness has passed. By a natural phenomenon of hysteresis she continues to see herself in the dominant position when the reality is already different.

Different scenarios are then possible:

The power system is smart enough to perceive the collapse of power, albeit with a delay, and the leaders try to manage the “landing” as well as possible. This was what Mikhail Gorbachev had attempted, but he had largely underestimated the unreliability of Anglo-American promises, of which the genocide of the Indians of North America offers a striking example. I recommend reading Howard Zinn’s book A People’s History of the United States.

The power system is gerontocratic, real or symbolic (beware of old people who look young), and it turns to paranoia, to dogmatism based on an outdated representation (exceptional destiny…) and becomes totally ideological . In this case, we can try to bring this system of power back down to earth, little by little, in an impressionistic way, but if that does not work, there remains the cold shower; this is what is happening in Ukraine right now.

Anticipation

If Vladimir Putin has decided on the action he is taking, it is because he has considered all the possible scenarios and in particular the responses of Western countries and that he has the means to respond to them. But the politics of Western countries, whether internal or external, is governed by ideology, not by reason. In the current situation, it leads to hysteria. But above all, from the point of view of V. Putin, it is predictable because the ideologues are predictable. The sequel will be pathetic Western countries began to “denounce very firmly and with the greatest vigor this act of Russian aggression”.

In short, it utters outrageous cries, it howls, it points, it teaches lessons, in short it does not act. It doesn’t act because it can’t act, it doesn’t have the means… But it threatens sanctions, and that’s where the situation risks degenerating for Western countries because Russia, by way of of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, announced “The response measures will follow, of course, how symmetrical or asymmetrical they will be, it will depend on the analysis of the restrictions” imposed on Russia.

Not only is Russia not afraid of sanctions, but its response may still surprise everyone. Russia does not fear sanctions: In 2014, the European sanctions resulting from the annexation of Crimea reinforced Vladimir Putin’s decision to invest 52 billion dollars in agriculture, in order to no longer depend on the outside for food, and to no longer fear shortages in the event of Western sanctions.

Since then, from a wheat importer, Russia has become the leading exporting country. Moreover, at the moment, the prices of wheat and cereals are exploding. In addition, whereas before 2014 it had almost no farms, today Russia is self-sufficient in poultry and almost in pork, thanks to massive investments in factory farming. In the same dynamic, Russia is a developing manufacturing country.

Moreover, it lacks the manpower to support this development. In this regard, the influx of Russian refugees from Ukraine to Russia could be a boon. In the field of metals, Russia would have 16% of world reserves of beryllium, 11% of chromium, 22% of copper, 38% of manganese, 79% of mercury, 15% of nickel, 16% of niobium, 10% of platinum, 7% tantalum, 49% vanadium, 24% zinc, as well as significant reserves of rare metals such as rhodium.

In short, varied resources that cover the needs in the strategic areas of the technology of the future. Russia is energy self-sufficient while European countries cannot do without Russian gas. Russian gas is 40% of European gas. In addition, Europe does not have enough capacity to process American LNG. It lacks terminals and liquid gas regasification capacities. In particular, Germany has no terminals; it is the weak link.

Russia could be excluded from the SWIFT system, the international financial transaction system. But again, Russia has officially developed its own system, as well as China, and it’s a safe bet that a Russian-Chinese system is already operational. But China is currently “the factory of the world”, so all countries that import products made in China will have to use the new transaction system; it’s crowded! It is not Russia that will be excluded from SWIFT, it is SWIFT that will be excluded from international transactions. This is part of the geopolitical paradigm shift.

Russia’s response: another judo hold?

What should we understand from the words of Dmitry Peskov? “The response measures will, of course, follow how symmetrical or asymmetrical they are, it will depend on the analysis of the restrictions. As usual, V. Poutine announces the color.

The dependence of the various Western countries on Russia (energy, food, metals, etc.) varies greatly. Behind the words “symmetrical” and “asymmetrical” there is a weapon to divide the beautiful Western edifice, to create fault lines. There will be those who are nice to Russia and the stubborn. The former will be spared and invited to join the new world order quickly, the latter will find it difficult to make it through the winter. All this will take place against the backdrop of a play so that Westerners do not lose face. Let’s bet that Vladimir Putin will be magnanimous.

In summary, Vladimir Putin has decided to whistle the end of the liar poker game with the Westerners, USA in the lead. His game is chess or judo. Through this surprise, rapid and extremely well-prepared and coordinated action, Russia once again demonstrates the efficiency of its army and its technical superiority. The geopolitical paradigm shift is being completed and those who will continue to ignore it will remain on the side of the road for a while.

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