Ongoing negotiation for a new world order
We have to take Ukraine for what it is because when you focus on Ukraine alone you don’t see the big picture which is a battle in a much larger and much broader war which is a fierce geopolitical struggle that revolves around a concept which is that of a new world order,there is nothing sulfurous or conspiratorial but an unstoppable logic which is that in each era we have an infrastructure and a superstructure.
Our infrastructure is our everyday world and the superstructure is our world of governance and our world of governance are inherited from the second world war with the Bretton Woods conference, the Yalta conference and the Potsdam conference which built this world order in which we live today.
So when we talk about a new world order it is the evolution and the change of the superstructures to adapt them to a new world order. This is how we must understand things by integrating this great reset of the Davos Forum who participates in this new world order and its evolution or even its revolution on the superstructures.
When we look back from a historical perspective and although what is happening in Ukraine is dramatic, but today it remains pre-localized events and still very moderate (with all the immense respect to all the victims) in relation to the massacres, pogroms and genocides which Europe has experienced in its history. The great history is tragic and amounts to millions of deaths.
Therefore the war in Ukraine is a much larger battle, that for the new world order, that for the division of the world by the great powers as we remember the Yalta conference where Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill and no continental European countries since continental Europe was on the menu so it was not invited to the table.
Today we have huge negotiations which are being played out with meetings between Chinese and Americans in Rome a few days ago but which have not yielded much, we have the current Churchill who is Boris Johnson who left for a tour in the Middle East. Each trying to convince with more or less arguments partners to join his camp.
In short, we find ourselves today in a new situation where balances are being negotiated underhand and what we see in Ukraine is only the reflection, a small visible index for everyone of a battle much more intense, which today is an immense negotiation among the great powers of this world trying to share quite simply, the leadership, the power at the world level and tries to share it.
So in this global negotiation we are for the moment in the rise of tensions, we raise ‘the auction’, we threaten each other, we take retaliatory measures against each other to try to have an advantage in the negotiations in progress.
Regarding Putin the chess player, advancing for the moment a pawn on the great European chessboard, not a queen, a bishop or even less a knight and Ukraine on the scale of the great battle that is being played is not than a pawn.
Whatever the outcome in Ukraine the game is far from over which does not mean that we are killing each other. Today on the range of possibilities we can go from the thermonuclear war to the scenario where everything goes well since finally the great powers face the abyss, with the fear of a war which would be out of control we end up agree.
The markets have played in the last three days on a renewed optimism playing on the rise on the basis of negotiations with Ukraine which are progressing moderately well, but this is not really the subject. What is progressing well or which potentially can change things are the major negotiations underway, whether in Rome between Chinese and Americans, whether with India or Great Britain with the petro-monarchies, ongoing negotiations with the Iran or those opened with Venezuela, etc.
Thus in this giant diplomatic ballet the markets say to themselves: “We buy the exit from the top and peace because in any case we cannot value a third world war in the markets”. How much would a third world war be worth on the stock market? It would be worth minus 99% because everything will be destroyed anyway,ultimately it makes no sense to value the worst-case scenario.
To be continued.