The death blow

Vladimir Putin’s announcement that contracts for the sale of Russian raw materials to Western countries will be honored provided they are paid for in rubles came shortly after Russia first used hypersonic missiles in its war in Ukraine. There’s no hazard.

Already, at the beginning of September 2013, I noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had declared that the world economy had to be dedollarized a few days after Russian S-300 missiles, fired from ships crisscrossing the eastern Mediterranean, had intercepted US missiles fired at Syria. At that time, I had analyzed it as the combination of Russian military power and Chinese economic power to counter American hegemony. To fully understand what is happening at the moment, it is perhaps necessary to come back to two notions: the notion of power as the engine of strategy and the notion of system.

Power as a driver of strategy

On the subject of strategy, General Poirier presents the notion of integral state strategy as the “theory and practice of all the forces of all kinds, current and potential, resulting from national activity, its purpose is to achieve all the purposes defined by the general policy. It associates the results of the three economic, cultural and military strategies in a unity of thought and action which combines both their aims and their ways and means. »

To be exercised, the integral State strategy is therefore based on capacities (the means) which make it possible to develop, if necessary, a certain power (the ways). Thus, the capacities constitute the base from which a certain power can be implemented. Building capacity is a long-term job; exercising its power is a matter of circumstances. We can formulate this differently: to constitute capacities is to accumulate potential energy; to exert one’s power is to transform potential energy into dynamic energy as needed.

The system

There is a relatively abundant literature on theoretical systemics, including the two reference works: “General Theory of Systems” by Ludwig von Bertalanffy and “Theory of the General System” by Jean-Louis Le Moigne. The notion of system has been expressed in different ways. For my part, I will retain a definition that combines several: “A system is a set of elements in dynamic interaction, organized according to a goal, and immersed in an environment.” The complexity of a system varies with the number of interactions, of links between the elements.

The purpose according to which the elements are organized is the raison d’être of the system in question, its existential heart in a way. It is from the understanding of the goal that we can classify the elements of the system in order of importance, that we can prioritize them. Indeed, one of the characteristics of systems is that they are hierarchical, and the more complex a system, the more hierarchical it is. The center or centers of gravity of the system, according to the expression of Carl von Klausewitz, are the highest elements in the hierarchy of the system, those which are directly linked to the purpose of the system, therefore to its very existence. At this stage, and before analyzing the confrontation of wills in progress, we can say that the goal of the Anglo-American system and that of the Russian system are different and moreover this manifests itself in a striking way through the nature of the propaganda from either side. It is important to understand this.

To finish with the notion of system, it is necessary to introduce the notions of dangerousness, fragility and vulnerability. A dangerous element is an element which, if it disappears or weakens, jeopardizes the survival of the system, after a certain time; it is linked to the concept of center of gravity, either directly or indirectly. A fragile element is an element that can easily break. When a dangerous element is both fragile, then we are dealing with a vulnerability of the system.

In the situation of a confrontation of wills, a good strategist will have analyzed the adversary correctly, that is to say identified his centers of gravity, and will have accumulated enough potential energy to, when the time comes, transform it into dynamic energy in order to be able to weaken the dangerous elements of the opposing system. This is what the adversaries of the United States have been doing for at least fifteen years (Russia, China, Iran, etc.). This is what Western leaders (banks and multinationals) have not done all this time, out of complacency, blindness, lack of intelligence or simply laziness.

Two systems, two visions, one confrontation

Schematically, we could summarize the goals of the two opposing systems as follows:

Regarding the system led by the United States: “Dominate the world”. The tools to achieve this goal are economic globalization and consubstantially the disappearance of nation-states (like the EU), control of the currency thanks to the dollar, the City, Wall Street and tax havens, and military supremacy to enforce all of this. The center of gravity of this system is money, the true god with its churches and its priests.

Regarding the concurrent system: “Protect yourself to maintain your identity”, which implies a multipolar world and global security rules. The instruments for achieving this objective are multiple partnerships thanks to institutions such as the OCS, the BRICS, the EAEU or even ASEAN, energy, food and financial autonomy and an efficient education system (schools and university) thanks to to centralized states. The center of gravity of this system is the, or rather the civilizations.

While the adversaries of the United States have correctly analyzed the Anglo-American system, learned the right lessons from it and amassed targeted potential energy that can be transformed at the right time, the American “elites” have analyzed their adversaries (countries recalcitrant in front of their goal) in the light of what they are, which is a strategic error, but that is explained.

In a book titled “Why Does the World Hate America?” appeared in 2002, after 09/11/2001, a chapter bears the title “America is the world, and the world is America”. The authors write: “America therefore does not present itself as an antiquated imperial power in search of spheres of influence and in competition with other empires; it is a superpower that has no equal […] if the world is America, it follows that the interests of America are necessarily the interests of the world. And that those who act against America’s interests, culture, or worldview are actually undermining the well-being and security of the planet. »

The combination of supremacism and the feeling of manifest destiny (in this regard, read “God is American — From Theo democracy in the United States” by Jean-François Colosimo) kept the American “elites” in a fantasy which, colliding with more and more often to the reality of events and situations, has been compensated by daily more violent and idiotic propaganda, propaganda aimed above all at themselves. Correlatively, not having analyzed their adversaries correctly, they did not feel the moment when they were going too far and when they touched on the raison d’être of the opposing system. They therefore could not anticipate the reaction of their opponents. And the worst part is that they still haven’t understood that China, India, countries in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are waiting that. They continue to try to impose their decisions on the rest of the planet while it patiently waits for the end of the game and the collapse of American power… Blind until the end! This collapse is ongoing.

The Collapse

On March 26, 2018, in an article entitled “A so British hysteria”, I wrote this: “The SWIFT system: “Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication” is an international communication system which allows banks to make electronic transfers between them. It is controlled by the United States and Great Britain, which gives them all the strategic information on the policies of banks around the world. Following an attack on a Russian bank via SWIFT, Russia developed its own interbank system. The logical consequence is that the abandonment of SWIFT by the BRICS, and then by other countries, is only a matter of time.

Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement about payment in rubles for Russian resources heralds the end of the dollar as well as an ongoing process. Germany may rebel against a breach of contract, but the steamroller of history is on, and we are on the wrong side.

Here is what Godfree Roberts writes in the Saker: “On April 1, China and the Eurasian Economic Union — Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — will unveil an independent international monetary and financial system. It will be based on a new international currency, calculated from an index of national currencies of participating countries and international commodity prices.

SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) are inspired by the invention of John Maynard Keynes, a synthetic currency that derives its value from a large global and public basket of currencies and commodities. Totally resistant to handling, it is as stable as a pyramid.

SDRs are an attractive alternative to the US dollar which has become toxic to the EAEU, the 143 member states of the BRI, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), ASEAN and RCEP, organizations none of which count the United States among its members and all have Russia among its members, either as a full member or as a correspondent.

The fact that the EAEU, BRI, SCO, ASEAN and RCEP were already discussing a merger before the Ukraine operation is all the more amusing.

I predict an imminent monetary mutiny.

And now?

The question that remains is: What form will the collapse take?

I see two extreme scenarios:

An extremely brutal economic collapse in the United States that will cause a civil war. A great Nuremberg Trial №2 to judge the crimes committed in the name of democracy and human rights for at least thirty years.

An unconditional surrender of Western countries, starting with those of the EU, Japan, South Korea and Australia leading to a landing without too much pain.

Between these two extreme scenarios, all speculation is possible. What is certain is that we are going to enjoy watching the cascading jacket reversals and the ball of idiots.