After the hubbub of the last few days about the Russian military operation in Ukraine, we can draw the first lessons, in the perspective of the geopolitical paradigm shift.
From what we can estimate from information gleaned from various sites, the Russian operation seems to be going according to plan; phase 1 is complete. Ukraine is de facto demilitarized despite the shipment of military equipment from NATO countries. The most combative Nazi troops are isolated in the Donbass or in Mariupol. Their “reduction” is delicate and it could take time because the Nazis use the civilian population as a human shield. For more details on the tactical situation, I refer readers to sites that track this closely.
At the strategic level, this end of phase is the moment for Vladimir Putin to record the military success of the operation on the one hand and to continue the negotiations with the following question: “Do you want to go further? If so, this will be the commitment of phase 2. Even if the division of the operation into phases is only symbolic, it does not matter. It makes it possible to stake out the operation, to give it calendar references in order to gauge the evolution of the negotiations and the persistence of the incapacity of the Westerners to act, because that is indeed the most important of all.
The king is naked
At the geopolitical level, the whole world will have been able to see that after having pushed the actor Zelinski to provoke Russia with his offensive against the Donbass, the United States and NATO chickened out to defend Ukraine against the Russian offensive . The king is naked and that is the most important lesson of this war, yet, as it is going to have far-reaching implications for the entire global geopolitical landscape. Now, what must the Taiwanese think, for example? The Chinese are rubbing their hands.
To be continued…
To follow, therefore, the evolution of the reports of submission, of “sponsorship” (I assure your safety in exchange for…) in the world. The United States is showing the world that it does not keep its promises. Those interested in history know this. The conquest of North America by the Anglo-Americans was only a succession of treaties violated with an Indian genocide at the end. The last known example is the promise made by George Bush Sr. to Gorbachev not to expand NATO to the east. Written or oral, a promise is a promise and Men of Honor have only one word. So what about the word (written or oral, it doesn’t matter) of the United States today to defend such and such a country in exchange for oil, gas, rare metals, political support for the UN, geographical positioning against a competitor (South Korea, Taiwan)…?
Whatever the evolution of the situation in Ukraine, fast or slow, more or less difficult for the civilian population, all countries know today that the United States is not a reliable partner to ensure their security. By not intervening in Ukraine the United States has discredited itself in the eyes of the world and this is irreversible. By pushing the actor Zelenski to provoke Russia in this way, they put themselves in a situation of having to react or capitulate. Not having the means to act, they could only capitulate: a nice shot in the foot! Any operational planner would have considered Vladimir Putin’s possible reactions to the advance of NATO missiles to Russia’s doorstep, including what is happening now. Obviously, there was no operational planner or strategist on the team that dreamed up the US operation in Ukraine since 2014. just a bunch of idiots locked in their ideology, their hatred of Russia and their virtual world made of power fantasies.
The ‘coup de grâce’
He will come. It will come at the right time, when the United States simply has no means left to prevent it, nor the will or the ability to start a nuclear war. But first, let’s ask ourselves some simple questions. What was the use of American military superiority? To impose the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, a monkey currency, decorrelated from any reality and preserved from any obligation. With the dollar that they printed themselves, the American “elites” could buy everything for nothing at the same time that they put the majority of the countries of the world in debt to keep them under control. And beware of those who refused to let it go: Iraq, Libya, Iran, Algeria… The geopolitical paradigm of the unipolar world could be summed up as follows: owning the world thanks to a monkey currency that we print and impose on the rest of the world by threat, thanks to our military (technological) supremacy; a mafia system in short.
MONEY is the political, religious and philosophical center of gravity of the system in which we (Westerners) live. Attacking the money is attacking the heart of the system, so that will be for the end. The ‘coup de grâce’ !
There is always a disconnect between reality and the perception of reality, especially when we live in a world steeped in propaganda. For example, the reality of the loss of American military technological supremacy is old. It dates back to the monstrous failure of the last American military programs (F-35, Gerald Ford class aircraft carrier, etc.), around the middle of the 2000s. It was carried out in the field on September 3, 2013 and in April 2014 and confirmed by the Russian intervention in Syria since September 2015. Since then, any normally intelligent analyst should have known it, but no. It took the non-intervention of the United States and NATO in Ukraine for the whole world to understand this ancient reality. This colossal admission of weakness displayed in the eyes of the world will have served as a revealer.
The same sequence occurs in the economic and financial field. The dedollarization of the world economy began in 2007, very stealthy at first, it gradually spread between Russia and China for their trade, then with Iran and generally with countries that refuse American hegemony. Little by little, more and more exchanges are made outside the dollar. In addition, the financial crisis of 2007 and the sanctions against Russia since 2014 have led China and Russia to develop their own interbank transaction systems, the Russian SPSF and the Chinese CIPS, each with its qualities and its defects. Currently, the two countries are working on merging their systems to provide a technically reliable alternative to SWIFT. It would seem that this will be achieved at the end of 2022. My belief is that the system is ready and that its official commissioning will depend on the moment.
Thus, when Russia and China announce together that they are abandoning the SWIFT system, it is the whole world that will switch from SWIFT to the new system, to buy its energy, its cereals, its manufactured products… It will be the official end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, dated and signed.